A study published in the February issue of the Mayo Clinic Proceedings reports on a model which has been developed for predicting recurrence among kidney stone formers.
Lisa E. Vaughan, from the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and colleagues followed a random sample of incident symptomatic kidney stone formers for all symptomatic stone episodes resulting in clinical care from Jan. 1, 1984, through Jan. 31, 2017. Characteristics at each stone episode predictive of subsequent episodes were identified. Data were included for 4,951 episodes among 3,364 incident kidney stone formers.
The researchers found that per 100 years, stone recurrence rates were 3.4, 7.1, 12.1, and 17.6 after the first, second, third, and fourth or higher episode, respectively.
Independent risk factors for recurrence included younger age, male sex, higher body mass index, family history of stones, pregnancy, suspected stone episode before first episode, number of kidney stones on imaging, and diameter of the largest stone on imaging among other characteristics.
The C-index corrected for optimism was 0.681 for the model and was used to develop a prediction tool. In five years, the risk for recurrence varied from 0.9 to 94 percent depending on risk factors, number of past episodes, and years since last episode.
“This tool can also be used to estimate symptomatic stone episode rates that result in clinical care for use in clinical trials on kidney stone prevention,” the authors write.
REFERENCES: Vaughan et al: Predictors of Symptomatic Kidney Stone Recurrence After the First and Subsequent Episodes; https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(18)30757-2/fulltext